Sinking Bucs may be taking on too much water to win the NFC South
No matter how hard the NFC South wants to hand Tom Brady and Tampa Bay the division on a silver platter, the Bucs are refusing their bounty.
Even with a third consecutive loss, there’s a strong belief Tampa Bay will still make the playoffs. As bad as the NFC South is, many believe the Buccaneers won’t have to “earn it” as Tom Brady suggested after the team’s 27-22 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, but rather they’ll stumble into it. It might be time to stop giving them the benefit of the doubt.
Tampa Bay is stuck in limbo — a half-game out of both first and last place in its division. Brady is quarterbacking a team two games under.500 for the first time since his rookie season when the Patriots were 1-3.
The Buccaneers’ remaining strength of schedule ranks 19th according to ESPN’s Football Power Index — compared to 11th through the teams’ first eight games — but data from Football Outsiders suggests the Buccaneers may find it harder to get going in the second half.
During the team’s 3-5 start, Tampa Bay faced one team in the top 10 in DVOA — the Dallas Cowboys in a 19-3 Week 1 win.
Their opponents’ average DVOA is 1.5 percent through eight games, with an average rank of 19.5 — including struggles against the Saints (No. 22), Panthers (No. 23) Packers (No. 25) and Falcons (No. 32). The team is averaging 18.3 points per game.
The team’s upcoming schedule finds Tampa Bay playing teams with an average DVOA slightly worse (1.9 percent) but a higher overall average rank (18.4) due to three games against teams in the top 10 — Nov. 6 against the Los Angeles Rams (No. 8), and back-to-back games in December at the 49ers (No. 7) and against the Bengals (No. 6).
If the Buccaneers are to get on track, it will have to come from Brady. Per Football Outsiders, Tampa Bay’s offensive rush DVOA is negative-22.1 percent, 31st in the league. Running back Leonard Fournette is averaging 3.5 yards per carry.
Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Fournette has the second worst rush yards over expected per attempt (-0.37) for any ball carrier with 100 or more attempts.
Brady still has a chance for his story to get a Hollywood ending, but there’s a growing body of evidence that the final lines may already be written. It’s up to us to turn the page.