Number crunch: Cam Charron discusses Devils’ breakout, Leafs’ struggles
Cam Charron joined Tyler Yaremchuk and Mike McKenna for Thursday’s Number Crunch segment on Daily Faceoff Live to talk about the hot start of the New Jersey Devils and the slow start of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Yaremchuk: “Let’s start with a team that’s off to a great start this season, the New Jersey Devils. Everyone is asking the question… Are the Devils legit?”
Charron: “Yes! To me, this is the most important development in the entire league. They’re a team whose group of skaters was probably average or above average last season depending on how you evaluate certain things. But they were done in by the worst save percentage at even strength in the league.
They’ve turned into this possession juggernaut that’s found so many different ways to win games. Per Natural Stat Trick, their Corsi percentage is 62 percent through 10 games, which is the second-best 10-game start for any team since 2007. Only the 2013-14 L.A. Kings had a better start, and they won the Stanley Cup that season.
The other impressive thing is that they’ve done it in a variety of different ways. Last season, they were a top team in terms of rush offense, they created the third-most rush shots in the NHL, but they were average when they weren’t off the rush. This year, they’ve become a top-five team in terms of generating shots off of other situations, such as cycle situations, forechecking, and the like.
So while they’re still a strong rush team, they’ve been able to do it so many different ways. It’s excellent when you watch those recent games against the Blue Jackets and Canucks, the Devils just ground both of those teams into dust by controlling the puck for so long in the offensive zone.”
McKenna: “Aside from the Devils, there are a few other teams around the league that people have their eyes on. One of them is the Toronto Maple Leafs. Recently, it was because of the slide they were on and then last night they grabbed a win over the Flyers.
What’s been going on with the Leafs under the surface? Are there things we should be a little bit more in tune with than just the results on the ice so far?”
Charron: “It’s better that they won last night’s game rather than lost it. And they did dominate the game. I count scoring chances for my website, and I had them at 20-to-4 at even strength. They had strong performances up and down the lineup and there was no reason to be concerned about that win at all.
But I do have concerns with the way they’ve started. A lot of people have pointed at last year because they started with a very similar record. They’re 5-4-2 now, they were 6-4-1 after 11 games last year.
The team just isn’t as dangerous on offense as they were last season. They’ve had trouble possessing the puck with none of the big four (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander) on the ice. With none of them on the ice, they’ve only got 49 percent Corsi and 1.6 goals-per-60. Last season, in that same situation, they were 51 percent Corsi and 2.5 goals-per-60.
They’ve lost some depth players, Ilya Mikheyev, Ondrej Kase, Jason Spezza. With that, they’re losing a goal every three games by virtue of not getting that production from the bottom-six. It’s been very noticeable that a lot of their games have been really close affairs that could have gone either way.
I still think the team is underperforming their underlying numbers. They’re obviously going to look a little better when Matthews’ chances start going in at even strength.
There are some details in their game they need to clean up and they looked better on those details against Philly. They were getting a lot more pucks at the net, they actually scored three goals off of rebounds, and they were exiting the defensive zone with control a lot better, which is something this team is going to have to do in order to have the level of success they had last season.”
You can watch the full episode here…