Mission improbable: Can Texans beat heavily favored Eagles?
The Texans don’t have a prayer to beat the Eagles on Thursday night, do they?
Philadelphia is 17-7 in Thursday games in team history, per Statmuse, and has never lost to Houston. All signs point to a blowout. The Eagles are a double-digit favorite, per Oddchecker.
Now it’s time for a history lesson.
In 2021, the Tennessee Titans were 10-point home favorites against the 2-8 Texans. Houston was on a an eight-game losing streak. It didn’t score a touchdown in four of those games. The Titans were 8-2 and on a six-game winning streak.
In the game, Tennessee owned nearly every important statistical category. The Titans accounted for 230 more yards and even had fewer penalties than Houston, but the Titans lost the turnover battle, 5-0, and the most important statistical category of all.
The Texans won, 22-13.
Tennessee still went on to win the AFC South.
In 2019, Philadelphia was favored by 10.5 points over the Miami Dolphins. The Eagles were up by seven points at the half but gave up 23 second-half points and lost, 37-31.
The stats were fairly even, but Philadelphia gave the Dolphins four first downs on defensive penalties and Miami went 3-for-3 on fourth downs.
The Eagles won their remaining four games and the NFC East, but for one day, the better team got sloppy.
It’s hard to be pessimistic about the Eagles these days. They’re off to a 7-0 start and look healthy after the bye and an impressive win over Pittsburgh.
But upsets happen every week. An Eagles loss on Thursday may not be probable, but it’s not impossible.