Pakistan
Played: 4, Points: 4, NRR: 1.117, Rem match: vs Ban (Adelaide)

Despite the convincing win against South Africa, Pakistan will still need help from outside to qualify. They need to beat Bangladesh, of course, but that won’t be enough if India and South Africa win their matches on Sunday. To qualify, Pakistan will need at least one of these two to happen along with their victory:

South Africa
Played: 4, Points: 5, NRR: 1.441, Rem match: vs Neth (Adelaide)

South Africa need to beat Netherlands to qualify. As explained above, even if that game is washed out and they end up on six points, they will finish below the winner of the Pakistan-Bangladesh game, as the winner there will have more wins. The forecast looks good for Adelaide on Sunday, though, so South Africa will most likely get the opportunity to play a full game.

India
Played: 4, Points: 6, NRR: 0.730, Rem match: vs Zim (Melbourne)

Pakistan’s NRR is already better than India’s, so any victory for Pakistan, and any defeat for India, will maintain this NRR hierarchy. That means India need at least one more point on Sunday to ensure qualification. If India lose, there are two ways they can still qualify: one, if South Africa lose to Netherlands, or two, if Bangladesh beat Pakistan and still finish below India on NRR.

Since India play last on Sunday, though, they will know exactly what is required to finish in the top two.

Bangladesh
Played: 4, Points: 4, NRR: -1.276, Rem match: vs Pak (Adelaide)

Given Bangladesh’s terrible NRR, it is almost impossible that they will move past India on the points table: for that to happen, the sum of the margins of the results of those two games – Bangladesh beating Pakistan and Zimbabwe beating India – will have to exceed 150 runs. Thus, Bangladesh’s only chance is to beat Pakistan and then hope that South Africa get no more than one point against Netherlands.

Zimbabwe
Played: 4, Points: 3, NRR: -0.313, Rem matches: vs Ind (Melbourne)

Zimbabwe can get to five points, which means theoretically they can be tied on points with Pakistan, Bangladesh (if their game is washed out) and South Africa (if they lose their last game), but their NRR is too low to make them a serious contender. Even if they beat India by 50 runs, they will need South Africa to lose to Netherlands by a similar margin, to overhaul South Africa’s NRR.