New website launches to determine NHL Hall of Fame worthiness
Growing up as a goaltender in hockey-mad Sudbury, Ont., Paul Pidutti has been fascinated by the Hockey Hall of Fame for as long as he can remember. The debates, the statistics, and the merits of each individual case consumed him.
And during the pandemic lockdown in 2020, the KPMG accountant by trade, now 36, realized an opening to contribute to the conversation and scratch a lifetime itch.
Pidutti’s mission was bold: Boil down an entire NHL career to reflect a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness with one comprehensive number.
For the last two and a half years, he’s spent more than 2,000 hours – most days before sunrise, before punching the clock for his day job – building a database and tinkering and tweaking his formula. Now, as the Hall is set to induct the Class of 2022 in two weeks on Nov. 14, Pidutti is ready to share his passion project with the hockey world.
The Pidutti Point Share system (PPS) debuted on his website, Adjusted Hockey, last week.
“It’s really exciting for me because really, for the first time, we’re putting every player in NHL history on a level playing field with a data-driven approach,” Pidutti said. “There was so much trial and error to get to this point, but it’s all intended to be objective. At the end of the day, the selection process still has a qualitative factor – and that will always be the case and impossible to fully measure.
“But these metrics are supposed to be the starting point for debate.”
Part of Pidutti’s motivation to contribute is the secret-ballot process the Hall’s 16-member Selection Committee uses. Unlike the Baseball Hall of Fame, where exact ballot percentages and thresholds are published, the Hockey Hall of Fame keeps information such as which players were debated or considered private and confidential – and that may stifle some of the debate.
He saw just how powerful data can be for a candidacy in 2016 and 2017 when public interest essentially got former Montreal Expos star Tim Raines elected to Cooperstown. Fans talked about it, presented a compelling case, and more or less created media (elector) pressure that lifted Raines from 50 percent of ballots north of the required threshold of 75 percent.
“Maybe the Hockey Hall of Fame hasn’t done the best job in promoting the debate because of the process,” Pidutti said. “I know it’s a respect thing, and I certainly don’t intend to rattle any of those cages. I don’t want to be a ‘know-it-all’ when it comes to the work I’m doing. I’m just looking to add reference and data points.”
The first step in Pidutti’s process was to create a level playing field – which is easier said than done for a league that spans more than 8,000 players over 104 seasons. Players were classified in five different eras, roughly 25 seasons each, which accounted for changes in the league structure, schedule, rule changes, equipment, playing style, and statistical averages.
Borrowing from baseball, the next step was to focus on each player’s on-ice contributions from a data perspective. He measured output, efficiency (pace), and dominance (peak), then adjusted for relative league strength from the eras. Pidutti also factored in adjustments for Stanley Cup contributions, international play, and individual player awards.
Finally, and perhaps the toughest part of the equation, Pidutti worked through the careers of all 207 player inductees dating back to the founding of the game and set the ‘Hall of Fame standard’ for each position to use as a baseline. From there, he set tiers for each player relative to their position and era: inner circle, qualified, borderline plus/minus, Hall of ‘Very Good’ and ‘Not a HOF Candidate.’
He then sorted each of the 8,000-plus players in NHL history based on the formula. The end result is a PPS Player Card for each individual player, which captures all of that information with that one all-important metric: the PPS score.
The current Hall of Fame standard for forwards of the modern era is 235 PPS. How far above or below a player falls relative to that number should determine the strength or weakness of their case for Hall induction.