Last week: 11-3, the best forecast of the season. 64-44 for the season.

Thursday night

– Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5): This was a premium matchup on the Thursday night slate when the schedule got made, but neither team has lived up to the lofty preseason hype or hope. The Ravens have alternated wins and losses and been wildly inconsistent on both sides of the ball in getting to 4-3. And they’re favored in Tampa, where the Bucs have scored over 21 points just once all season — and they lost that game 41-31. Tampa Bay’s uncreative, injury-riddled offense is very tough to bank on, even with the Raven’s pattern dictating that the bad Baltimore team shows up at the pirate ship. No Antoine Winfield Jr. for the Bucs makes it that much easier to bet on Lamar Jackson staying in the top five in rushing yards.

Ravens 26, Buccaneers 17

Sunday games

– Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5): The Russell Wilson extravaganza heads to London after his infamous plane antics. The Jaguars playing in London are no joke, however. It could be a get-right game for Jags QB Trevor Lawrence, who has been inconsistent. Even though the Broncos D is stout, there’s only so much dysfunction from the other side of the ball they can stand.

Jaguars 20, Broncos 11

– Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions (+3.5): The Lions had the No. 1 offense through the first four weeks but have scored just six points in two games since. In those games, their league-worst defense has taken a giant step forward. I think they meet in the middle here against a Miami team that cannot run the ball and looks worse on offense by the week.

Lions 31, Dolphins 21

– Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5): I worry a little about the Vikings coming off a bye week. They have a rookie head coach, rookie GM and a couple of closer-than-needed wins entering the break. The Cardinals hung over 40 on New Orleans last week, so they should be playing with some confidence. However, the Arizona pass rush remains missing in action. If you can’t force Kirk Cousins into mistakes, the Vikings vet isn’t making them, not in 2022 anyway. Should be a fun watch for the very limited media markets who get this broadcast.

Vikings 33, Cardinals 29

– Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5): The Bears finally figured out to let Justin Fields run, and they hung 37 points on the Patriots in the process. Rookie coach learning curve? Fields and coach Matt Eberflus will need to stay ahead of that curve if they want to bring down the Cowboys and their opportunistic defense. Rookie LB Sam Williams has proved to be a nice complement to Micah Parsons as a pass-rusher, and their ball-hawking secondary can make Fields pay for mistakes. I’d like the Bears’ chances more here if they had a legit No. 1 WR. Or a No. 2 WR. Or an offensive line. Or Robert Quinn at DE, who they traded away on Wednesday.

Cowboys 31, Bears 12

– Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5): I have a long-standing theory that teams who fire their coaches in-season tend to have one great game in the ensuing couple of weeks, then crash back to the scorched earth that got the coach fired in the first place. Carolina will test that theory this week, one Sunday after the Panthers stunned the world by blowing out the Buccaneers behind backup QB P.J. Walker. I suspect Walker will once again prove he deserves more chances to lead the team, but he doesn’t have enough help to beat the Falcons, who would be the most unlikely 5-3 team of the season if they win. If you’re still alive in survivor fantasy games, this is an optimal time to use the Falcons.

Falcons 27, Panthers 20

– Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints (+1.5): The Raiders are 2-4, but they’ve been within one score in each game they’ve lost. In their two wins, they’ve beaten bad teams by considerable margins. New Orleans has given up more points in the last five weeks than any other team, and that likely won’t change when it extends out to six.

Raiders 33, Saints 20

– New England Patriots at New York Jets (+1.5): The Jets being home underdogs in this game is all about the legacy of the Patriots and their decades of dominance atop the AFC East. This is a New England team that comes off a Monday night blowout loss to Chicago, and the Windy City Bears couldn’t blow out a candle with their offense before that game. Bill Belichick will rebound, but the Jets have the better offense and the better defense in this game. As long as Matthew Judon doesn’t ruin Zach Wilson’s day — and he very well might — I like the Jets comfortably. At my own peril…

Jets 29, Patriots 21

– Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5): Here’s hoping this battle for Pennsylvania supremacy is better played than the recent senatorial debate. Based on Pittsburgh’s offense, it might not.

Eagles 32, Steelers 10

– Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+4): Just strictly riding a hunch here that Dameon Pierce has a massive game for the home Texans and elevates Houston over Tennessee. Don’t hold me to this one, it’s from the same part of the gut that has been permanently scarred by Pumpkin Spice Triscuits. At some point we’ll run out of things that can be pumpkin spiced and that will be a great time.

Texans 30, Titans 24

– Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (-3): The Sam Ehlinger era begins for the Colts. His predraft evaluation reads eerily similar to current Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke. Man, the wreckage Carson Wentz did to both these franchises is sad.

Commanders 20, Colts 17

– San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-2): This is a big opportunity for the Rams to put together a good game against a good team — something they haven’t done all season. That includes the first meeting between these two in San Francisco, a game the 49ers won 24-9. If the Rams can contain Deebo Samuel and gain more than two yards on first downs, they’ve got a very good chance to pull it off. The 49ers remain one of the NFL’s most enigmatic teams.

Rams 26, 49ers 22

– New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5): Last week, I boldly pronounced that the Giants would fall back to earth after the lofty start, not because New York isn’t good but simply based on the law of averages. I was dead wrong on that front. I’m going to make the same forecast here, once again knowing that the Giants have a good team capable of winning in Seattle. I do think the loss of standout WR D.K. Metcalf is a very big deal for the home team, and that leaves the door open for the G-men to roll to 7-1. Seattle’s offensive line makes the difference.

Seahawks 24, Giants 20

– Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (-10.5): This is the first time in Aaron Rodgers’ career that his Packers have been a double-digit underdog. As stunning as that might seem, the line might not be big enough to pick the lethargic Packers. Could they have a death rattle upset in them? Sure. But in Buffalo with the way the Bills defense can turn it up? Don’t bet on it. 

Bills 35, Packers 20

Monday night

– Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+4): Somehow, some way the Browns have won seven of the last eight meetings in the Battle of Ohio. That includes a sweep of the Super Bowl-bound Bengals last year in a game Case Keenum started in place of Baker Mayfield. Those Browns were a sniveling mess and still managed to beat their rivals.

These Browns, yeah. The sniveling mess festers on. The lack of consistency from both sides of the ball is maddening. Too often they lower their own level of play regardless of the opponent, and that has to stop. It won’t be easy against a Bengals team that looks to be figuring itself out after an early swoon. Who scores first here is very important; the home fans are ready to bark their butts off for the home team, but if the Bengals go up 10-0 early, all that bark will bite at head coach Kevin Stefanski and his underachieving Browns.

Bengals 23, Browns 20

College games

Washington State 29, Utah 27 in a showcase Thursday night game for Cougars QB Cameron Ward, a potential first-round pick

Ohio State 48, Penn State 31

TCU 40, West Virginia 27

Syracuse 26, Notre Dame 17

Georgia 33, Florida 16

Tennessee 30, Kentucky 28