Tarasenko’s future in St. Louis has been in question dating back to last season when his trade request wasn’t granted. To his credit, he responded in the best way possible with a career year that saw him pick up 82 points in 78 games and he’s off to a pretty good start this season as well. In doing so, he has put some of the questions about the health of his shoulders to rest. At this point, it’s still difficult to see him staying in St. Louis (especially with who else needs to be re-signed) but the 30-year-old is certainly positioning himself to be one of the top wingers on the open market next summer. Accordingly, another contract in this range could be doable.

Barbashev is a player many are keeping an eye on this season to see if his 60-point performance was a one-off or a sign of things to come. If it’s the former, a small raise to an AAV starting with a three could still be doable but a repeat showing could double that on the open market. 

Acciari has impressed the coaching staff early on and was bumped up to the front line but that’s likely a short-term promotion. He’s more of an energy player and as long as he stays healthy, it should be mission accomplished on bolstering his value, which could put him in a spot for a multi-year agreement in the $1.5M range.  

Pitlick couldn’t land a guaranteed deal through training camp but got one off an extended PTO. That’s likely to be the route he needs to take next year.

As for the RFA-bound forwards, both Brown and Toropchenko are at the stage where they’re looking to establish themselves as NHL regulars. Both have had limited ice time in the games they’ve played so far and that isn’t going to be enough to land a raise of significance. St. Louis will need to keep these end-of-roster spots at or near the minimum so it will be interesting to see if they can get these two to take another year around this price tag.

Mikkola was scratched at times last season but still managed to get this deal in exchange for avoiding arbitration this past summer. His role has been limited this year, which doesn’t bode well for his market value. However, he still has fewer than 100 NHL games under his belt so there could be a team that feels there’s some untapped upside. Even if he stays in a number six role, his market could be strong enough to get a small raise next summer.  

Perunovich took a one-year show-me deal and then fractured his shoulder which will probably keep him out for the rest of the year. Accordingly, another one-year, low-cost pact could be coming his way, especially since he won’t accrue a season toward arbitration eligibility if he doesn’t play this season.

Greiss was brought over in free agency to be a cost-friendly backup goaltender, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him kept below 20 starts to avoid the bonus payout. He’ll be 37 next summer so he’ll likely be on one-year deals from here on out. After a tough year with Detroit, a bounce-back showing could give him a stronger market in July.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Robert Bortuzzo ($950K, UFA)
D Calle Rosen ($762.5K, UFA)
D Marco Scandella ($3.275M, UFA)
F Nathan Walker ($750K in 2022-23, $775K in 2023-24, UFA)

Walker is a nice story of perseverance as next season will be his first one-way contract after nine seasons on a two-way deal. He’s one of those players that fits at the minimum in an end-of-roster spot but it’s hard to see him getting much more than that.

Scandella fit in well after he was acquired midseason in 2020 but this contract hasn’t been a good one for them. He struggled last year and will miss most (if not all) of this season after undergoing hip surgery, which has created the LTIR space that they’re currently using. At this point, he’s someone that could be looking at a pay cut of 50% or more in 2024.  

Bortuzzo is a depth defender that has signed a variety of low-cost deals to stay with the Blues. If they’re comfortable with him in a seventh role two years from now, that trend could continue with a contract similar in value to this one.  

Rosen has bounced around in recent years between the NHL and AHL and is likely to stay at or close to the minimum unless he’s able to establish himself as a full-timer at the top level.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Pavel Buchnevich ($5.8M, UFA)

The 27-year-old fit in quite well last season, putting together a career year in his first season with St. Louis. If he can repeat that performance over the next few seasons, Buchnevich could be highly sought after in 2025 with a price tag that would be similar to Tarasenko’s. That’s a big if, but even if he checks in closer to the 60-point range instead of his 76 from a year ago, he could get closer to the $6.5M range on his next contract.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

G Jordan Binnington ($6M through 2026-27)
D Justin Faulk ($6.5M through 2026-27)
D Torey Krug ($6.5M through 2026-27)
F Jordan Kyrou ($2.8M in 2022-23, $8.125M from 2023-24 through 2030-31)
D Colton Parayko ($6.5M through 2029-30)
F Brandon Saad ($4.5M through 2025-26)
F Brayden Schenn ($6.5M through 2027-28)
F Robert Thomas ($2.8M in 2022-23, $8.125M from 2023-24 through 2030-31)

Thomas and Kyrou are on identical contracts this season and that will be the case for the long haul. They both vastly outperformed their bridge deals last year, establishing themselves as core players in the process and leading to these agreements. With somewhat limited track records, these deals do carry some risk but it’s clear that GM Doug Armstrong was factoring in the future cap increases with his thinking. They might be a bit above market for a season or two, but over time they should get a good return on these contracts as long as they continue to be impact forwards.

Schenn is coming off his best year in terms of per-game averages and he has produced a bit above that level this season so far. At this point, he’s still a quality top-six forward that can play both center and the wing and they’ll get a good return for a few more years at least. With the heavier style he plays, there are some concerns about how the final few seasons could look but for now, this contract shouldn’t be a concern.  

Saad opted for stability over a pillow contract to try to rebuild his value and the Blues benefitted from that decision. He’s a capable top-six winger at a relatively team-friendly value now and as the cap goes up, it should become more club-friendly along the way.

Faulk’s acquisition and extension didn’t look great early on but last year he turned a corner and had one of his best performances. He draws a lot of value from his production and should have a few more good years in him. 

Krug also had his best season in St. Louis last season but isn’t the type of minutes-eater that Faulk is. While they’re not true number one options, they’re both valuable defenders and are strong anchors of their by-committee approach.

Parayko is supposed to be in that category as well. He has shown flashes of offensive upside in the past and if he could ever channel that with some consistency, he could become that true number one defender that St. Louis is lacking. However, he hasn’t been able to do so and while he logs heavy minutes, he’s more of a complementary defender when he isn’t producing. They’re paying him to log tough minutes and produce and that hasn’t happened often enough just yet.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Thomas (this season)
Worst Value: Parayko

Looking Ahead

Armstrong will have one chance to make a move to upgrade his roster in-season using whatever is left of Scandella’s money. While LTIR room doesn’t accrue like regular cap space, it seems reasonable to expect that he’ll wait until closer to the deadline to see what exactly his team needs while trade partners might be more willing to retain salary at that time.

Let’s do some quick math. St. Louis has over $71M in commitments to 14 players next season. There’s no way they can afford to keep or replace both O’Reilly and Tarasenko so one core player is likely heading elsewhere for 2023-24. The following season, they have over $64M tied up in 11 players. Basically, until the Upper Limit starts to increase significantly, the Blues aren’t going to be able to add to their core group.